Hind-sight is not 20/20. Most people only remember the traumatic or the unusual. They often interpret yesterday’s data based on today’s understandings. “I knew that was going to happen,” is the classic response. We were uncertain then, and claiming less uncertainty now because we know the outcome doesn’t help us make better decisions when we are under uncertainty again. In fact, sometimes it makes our decision making worse.

The real question is how we decide when we are uncertain; when we don’t know the outcome. Any sort of analysis should include the level of uncertainty we had when we made the decision. It is possible to make a bad decision and have a good outcome. Likewise, it is possible to make a good decision and still have a bad outcome.

For those looking to improve their decision making, it is important to review and analyze past decisions and do it with a clear understanding of the conditions the decision was made in.

• How clear were the criteria for making the decision?
• What were the margin-for-error assumptions?
• What was the perceived level of urgency? Was the perception accurate?
• Did we see all the options? Were the options properly assessed?

Dietrich Dorner is a Professor of Psychology at the University of Bamberg and has received several awards for his research on decision making. He concludes in his book The Logic of Failure that analyzing your own decisions is a far better way of improving your decision making than taking a workshop on decision making!